How well can a seasonal forecast system represent 3 hourly compound wind and precipitation extremes over Europe?

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available on open access from IOP Publishing via the DOI in this recordExtreme precipitation and winds can have a severe impact on society, particularly when they occur at the same place and time. In this study the Met Office's Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5) model ensembles are evaluated against the reanalysis dataset ERA5, to find out how well they represent 3 hourly extreme precipitation, extreme wind and extreme co-occurring events over Europe. Although substantial differences in magnitude are found between precipitation and wind extremes between the datasets, the conditional probability of exceedance above the 99th percentile, which measures the co-occurrence between the two extremes, compares well spatially over Europe. However, significant differences in frequency are found around and over some areas of high topography. Generally GloSea5 underestimates this co-occurrence over sea. The model's co-occurring events at individual locations investigated occur with very similar synoptic patterns to ERA5, indicating that the compound extremes are produced for the correct reasons.University of Exeter College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical SciencesMet Office Hadley Centre Climate Programm

Compound precipitation and wind extremes over Europe and their relationship to extratropical cyclones

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordWe acknowledge the data providers in the ECA&D project. Klein Tank, A.M.G. and Coauthors, 2002. Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment. Int. J. of Climatol., 22, 1441–1453. Data and metadata available at https://www.ecad.euWe acknowledge the E-OBS dataset and the data providers in the ECA&D project (https://www.ecad.eu). Cornes, R., G. van der Schrier, E.J.M. van den Besselaar, and P.D. Jones. 2018: An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Datasets, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 123. doi:10.1029/2017JD028200Extratropical cyclones and their associated extreme precipitation and winds can have a severe impact on society and the co-occurrence between the two extremes is important when assessing risk. In this study the extremal dependency measure, χ, is used to quantify the co-occurrence of extreme precipitation and wind gusts, and is investigated at individual grid points and spatially over Europe. Results using three observational datasets and a higher spatial and temporal resolution version of ERA5 than previously used confirm previous studies. Over Europe high co-occurrence is found over western coasts and low co-occurrence is found over eastern coasts. All datasets have qualitatively similar spatial patterns over most regions of Europe excluding some regions of high topography where ERA5 χ values are much larger. ERA5 represents the timings of daily extreme co-occurring events well, compared to observations. The differences in precipitation accumulation timescales are also accounted for by considering hourly, 6, 24 and 48 hourly co-occurrence. In a few regions co-occurrence changes with longer accumulations, indicating the different speeds and sizes of weather systems affecting these regions. χ in most regions has little increase by allowing a 24 h lag and lead between the precipitation and wind, with a few exceptions where χ is increased by up to 24%. Regions with the larger of these increases are on or around elevated topography. Using an objective feature tracking method, insight into the spatial pattern of extreme precipitation and wind within cyclones over Europe is given. As well as suggesting how many hours apart the extremes occur from one another in a particular location. Extreme co-occurring events are associated with cyclones far more of the time than non extreme events. Given an extreme co-occurring event the chance of a cyclone being within 1110 km is more than 70% for much of Europe. Regions with low co-occurrence have extremes caused by different weather systems and regions with large co-occurrence have both extremes caused by the same weather system. Cyclones linked to extreme events, particularly co-occurring and extreme wind, have larger intensity than those not and for most of Europe these cyclones also have faster mean speed.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programm

Safety and Immunogenicity of H5N1 Influenza Vaccine Based on Baculovirus Surface Display System of Bombyx mori

Avian influenza virus (H5N1) has caused serious infections in human beings. This virus has the potential to emerge as a pandemic threat in humans. Effective vaccines against H5N1 virus are needed. A recombinant Bombyx mori baculovirus, Bmg64HA, was constructed for the expression of HA protein of H5N1 influenza virus displaying on the viral envelope surface. The HA protein accounted for approximately 3% of the total viral proteins in silkworm pupae infected with the recombinant virus. Using a series of separation and purification methods, pure Bmgp64HA virus was isolated from these silkworm pupae bioreactors. Aluminum hydroxide adjuvant was used for an H5N1 influenza vaccine. Immunization with this vaccine at doses of 2 mg/kg and 0.67 mg/kg was carried out to induce the production of neutralizing antibodies, which protected monkeys against influenza virus infection. At these doses, the vaccine induced 1:40 antibody titers in 50% and 67% of the monkeys, respectively. The results of safety evaluation indicated that the vaccine did not cause any toxicity at the dosage as large as 3.2 mg/kg in cynomolgus monkeys and 1.6 mg/kg in mice. The results of dose safety evaluation of vaccine indicated that the safe dose of the vaccine were higher than 0.375 mg/kg in rats and 3.2 mg/kg in cynomolgus monkeys. Our work showed the vaccine may be a candidate for a highly effective, cheap, and safe influenza vaccine for use in humans

Why do women invest in pre-pregnancy health and care? A qualitative investigation with women attending maternity services

Background Despite the importance attributed to good pre-pregnancy care and its potential to improve pregnancy and child health outcomes, relatively little is known about why women invest in pre-pregnancy health and care. We sought to gain insight into why women invested in pre-pregnancy health and care. Methods We carried out 20 qualitative in-depth interviews with pregnant or recently pregnant women who were drawn from a survey of antenatal clinic attendees in London, UK. Interviewees were purposively sampled to include high and low investors in pre-pregnancy health and care, with variation in age, partnership status, ethnicity and pre-existing medical conditions. Data analysis was conducted using the Framework method. Results We identified three groups in relation to pre-pregnancy health and care: 1) The “prepared” group, who had high levels of pregnancy planning and mostly positive attitudes to micronutrient supplementation outside of pregnancy, carried out pre-pregnancy activities such as taking folic acid and making changes to diet and lifestyle. 2) The “poor knowledge” group, who also had high levels of pregnancy planning, did not carry out pre-pregnancy activities and described themselves as having poor knowledge. Elsewhere in their interviews they expressed a strong dislike of micronutrient supplementation. 3) The “absent pre-pregnancy period” group, had the lowest levels of pregnancy planning and also expressed anti-supplement views. Even discussing the pre-pregnancy period with this group was difficult as responses to questions quickly shifted to focus on pregnancy itself. Knowledge of folic acid was poor in all groups. Conclusion Different pre-pregnancy care approaches are likely to be needed for each of the groups. Among the “prepared” group, who were proactive and receptive to health messages, greater availability of information and better response from health professionals could improve the range of pre-pregnancy activities carried out. Among the “poor knowledge” group, better response from health professionals might yield greater uptake of pre-pregnancy information. A different, general health strategy might be more appropriate for the “absent pre-pregnancy period” group. The fact that general attitudes to micronutrient supplementation were closely related to whether or not women invested in pre-pregnancy health and care was an unanticipated finding and warrants further investigation.This report is independent research commissioned and funded by the Department of Health Policy Research Programme Pre-Pregnancy Health and Care in England: Exploring Implementation and Public Health Impact, 006/0068

Broad Clade 2 Cross-Reactive Immunity Induced by an Adjuvanted Clade 1 rH5N1 Pandemic Influenza Vaccine

The availability of H5N1 vaccines that can elicit a broad cross-protective immunity against different currently circulating clade 2 H5N1 viruses is a pre-requisite for the development of a successful pre-pandemic vaccination strategy. In this regard, it has recently been shown that adjuvantation of a recombinant clade 1 H5N1 inactivated split-virion vaccine with an oil-in-water emulsion-based adjuvant system also promoted cross-immunity against a recent clade 2 H5N1 isolate (A/Indonesia/5/2005, subclade 2.1). Here we further analyse the cross-protective potential of the vaccine against two other recent clade 2 isolates (A/turkey/Turkey/1/2005 and A/Anhui/1/2005 which are, as defined by WHO, representatives of subclades 2.2 and 2.3 respectively).Two doses of the recombinant A/Vietnam/1194/2004 (H5N1, clade 1) vaccine were administered 21 days apart to volunteers aged 18-60 years. We studied the cross-clade immunogenicity of the lowest antigen dose (3.8 microg haemagglutinin) given with (N = 20) or without adjuvant (N = 20). Immune responses were assessed at 21 days following the first and second vaccine doses and at 6 months following first vaccination. Vaccination with two doses of 3.8 microg of the adjuvanted vaccine induced four-fold neutralising seroconversion rates in 85% of subjects against A/turkey/Turkey/1/2005 (subclade 2.2) and 75% of subjects against A/Anhui/1/2005 (subclade 2.3) recombinant strains. There was no response induced against these strains in the non-adjuvanted group. At 6 months following vaccination, 70% and 60% of subjects retained neutralising antibodies against the recombinant subclade 2.2 and 2.3 strains, respectively and 40% of subjects retained antibodies against the recombinant subclade 2.1 A/Indonesia/5/2005 strain.In addition to antigen dose-sparing, adjuvantation of inactivated split H5N1 vaccine promotes broad and persistent cross-clade immunity which is a pre-requisite for a pre-pandemic vaccine.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00309634

MF59®-Adjuvanted H5N1 Vaccine Induces Immunologic Memory and Heterotypic Antibody Responses in Non-Elderly and Elderly Adults

Pathogenic avian influenza virus (H5N1) has the potential to cause a major global pandemic in humans. Safe and effective vaccines that induce immunologic memory and broad heterotypic response are needed.Healthy adults aged 18-60 and > 60 years (n = 313 and n = 173, respectively) were randomized (1:1) to receive two primary and one booster injection of 7.5 microg or 15 microg doses of a subunit MF59-adjuvanted H5N1 (A/Vietnam/1194/2004) (clade 1) vaccine. Safety was monitored until 6 months after booster. Immunogenicity was assessed by hemagglutination inhibition (HI), single radial hemolysis (SRH) and microneutralization assays (MN). Mild injection-site pain was the most common adverse reaction. No serious adverse events relating to the vaccine were reported. The humoral immune responses to 7.5 microg and 15 microg doses were comparable. The rates for seroprotection (HI>40; SRH>25 mm(2); MN > or = 40) after the primary vaccination ranged 72-87%. Six months after primary vaccination with the 7.5 microg dose, 18% and 21% of non-elderly and elderly adults were seroprotected; rates increased to 90% and 84%, respectively, after the booster vaccination. In the 15 microg group, seroprotection rates among non-elderly and elderly adults increased from 25% and 62% after primary vaccination to 92% and 88% after booster vaccination, respectively. A heterologous immune response to the H5N1/turkey/Turkey/05 strain was elicited after second and booster vaccinations.Both formulations of MF59-adjuvanted influenza H5N1 vaccine were well tolerated. The European Union requirement for licensure for pre-pandemic vaccines was met by the lower dose tested. The presence of cross-reactive antibodies to a clade 2 heterologous strain demonstrates that this vaccine may be appropriate for pre-pandemic programs.(ClinicalTrials.gov) NCT00311480

Mud crab susceptibility to disease from white spot syndrome virus is species-dependent

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Based on a report for one species (<it>Scylla serrata</it>), it is widely believed that mud crabs are relatively resistant to disease caused by white spot syndrome virus (WSSV). We tested this hypothesis by determining the degree of susceptibility in two species of mud crabs, <it>Scylla olivacea </it>and <it>Scylla paramamosain</it>, both of which were identified by mitochondrial 16 S ribosomal gene analysis. We compared single-dose and serial-dose WSSV challenges on <it>S. olivacea </it>and <it>S. paramamosain</it>.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>In a preliminary test using <it>S. olivacea </it>alone, a dose of 1 × 10⁶WSSV copies/g gave 100% mortality within 7 days. In a subsequent test, 17 <it>S. olivacea </it>and 13 <it>S. paramamosain </it>were divided into test and control groups for challenge with WSSV at 5 incremental, biweekly doses starting from 1 × 10⁴and ending at 5 × 10⁶copies/g. For 11 <it>S. olivacea </it>challenged, 3 specimens died at doses between 1 × 10⁵and 5 × 10⁵copies/g and none died for 2 weeks after the subsequent dose (1 × 10⁶copies/g) that was lethal within 7 days in the preliminary test. However, after the final challenge on day 56 (5 × 10⁶copies/g), the remaining 7 of 11 <it>S. olivacea </it>(63.64%) died within 2 weeks. There was no mortality in the buffer-injected control crabs. For 9 <it>S. paramamosain </it>challenged in the same way, 5 (55.56%) died after challenge doses between 1 × 10⁴and 5 × 10⁵copies/g, and none died for 2 weeks after the challenge dose of 1 × 10⁶copies/g. After the final challenge (5 × 10⁶copies/g) on day 56, no <it>S. paramamosain </it>died during 2 weeks after the challenge, and 2 of 9 WSSV-infected <it>S. paramamosain </it>(22.22%) remained alive together with the control crabs until the end of the test on day 106. Viral loads in these survivors were low when compared to those in the moribund crabs.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p><it>S. olivacea </it>and <it>S. paramamosain </it>show wide variation in response to challenge with WSSV. <it>S. olivacea </it>and <it>S. paramamosain </it>are susceptible to white spot disease, and <it>S. olivacea </it>is more susceptible than <it>S. paramamosain</it>. Based on our single-challenge and serial challenge results, and on previous published work showing that <it>S. serrata </it>is relatively unaffected by WSSV infection, we propose that susceptibility to white spot disease in the genus <it>Scylla </it>is species-dependent and may also be dose-history dependent. In practical terms for shrimp farmers, it means that <it>S. olivacea </it>and <it>S. paramamosain </it>may pose less threat as WSSV carriers than <it>S. serrata</it>. For crab farmers, our results suggest that rearing of <it>S. serrata </it>would be a better choice than <it>S. paramamosain </it>or <it>S. olivacea </it>in terms of avoiding losses from seasonal outbreaks of white spot disease.</p

Participation of the Cell Polarity Protein PALS1 to T-Cell Receptor-Mediated NF-κB Activation

BACKGROUND: Beside their established function in shaping cell architecture, some cell polarity proteins were proposed to participate to lymphocyte migration, homing, scanning, as well as activation following antigen receptor stimulation. Although PALS1 is a central component of the cell polarity network, its expression and function in lymphocytes remains unknown. Here we investigated whether PALS1 is present in T cells and whether it contributes to T Cell-Receptor (TCR)-mediated activation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: By combining RT-PCR and immunoblot assays, we found that PALS1 is constitutively expressed in human T lymphocytes as well as in Jurkat T cells. siRNA-based knockdown of PALS1 hampered TCR-induced activation and optimal proliferation of lymphocyte. We further provide evidence that PALS1 depletion selectively hindered TCR-driven activation of the transcription factor NF-κB. CONCLUSIONS: The cell polarity protein PALS1 is expressed in T lymphocytes and participates to the optimal activation of NF-κB following TCR stimulation